Sports

Professional sports and Ivy League schools

Many high school athletes choose a college based on the likelihood that the one they choose will improve their chances of having a professional career. Similarly, many high school students choose a school based on the likelihood that it will help them rise to the top of their chosen field after completing their studies.

You may have heard that less than 2 percent of college athletes ever play at any professional level. The most recent probability study shows that only 1.5% of college football players will ever play, even briefly, on a professional team at any level, and the probability for men’s basketball players is only 1 ,1 %.

The last year they studied the actual numbers was 2012, and the actual numbers are very close to the probabilities listed above: 1.7% for soccer and 1.2% for men’s basketball. The only men’s or women’s sport with more than a 2% chance of briefly making a professional team is baseball.

Remember the numbers above are just for being part of a team that pays you to play for any length of time, sometimes that amounts to less than one game. The odds of you having a five-plus-year career at the professional level are astronomically low.

Similarly, high school students who choose Ivy League schools to help them rise to the top of their field are likely to face a similar fate. It’s true that the top of the class at Ivy League schools tend to get the best offers after they graduate, but once you get past the top two or three in each field, most will find that they would have done better if they were. at the top of his field at a state school.

Just because you’re the top graduate in your field at the best college in that field, doesn’t mean you’ll be the most desirable candidate for those who hire. Similarly, the best player on the best college football team last year was only the 12th player selected in the NFL draft and the third player selected at his position. Also, the best player on the best varsity basketball team was the 15th player selected in this year’s NBA draft and the fourth player chosen at his position.

Similarly, there’s a reason Paul George, who was the star player for an average Indiana Pacers team last season, is likely to earn more than $100 million when he becomes a free agent next year, and Shaun Livingston, who was the sixth best player on the champion Golden State Warriors, just signed a $24 million contract. It’s not the team or school you’re associated with that matters, it’s what you do with what you’ve got, wherever you are.

Top of the class at Harvard may get the best offers like the best player on the Golden State Warriors (Steph Curry) does, but once he gets to sixth best in the class at Harvard, he probably better be top of the class. the class at Indiana University.

Also, it’s common in athletics or academia for people to go to places where there’s a lot of competition and lose self-confidence early on. This usually leads to very capable people changing positions, changing specialties, languishing there, or quitting altogether.

If these same people had gone to a less competitive school, they probably would have had time to grow and perhaps surpass the achievements of those who initially outperformed them at the more competitive school. Not everyone grows at the same rate, and untold numbers of students and athletes who could have achieved great heights are lost each year for these reasons.

Many students and parents lose sight of the fact that it’s not where you start (or go to college) that matters, but where you finish. The cream rises to the top and over time, where you went to school doesn’t matter as much as what you accomplish once you’re out of school.

As I advise college quarterbacks who are thinking about coming out after their sophomore year in college, if you don’t think you have what it takes to make a career as an NFL quarterback, then by all means leave early and take the money and run. Likewise, I would advise any student who doesn’t believe in himself to go to the best school he can get into. But if you really want to be a star in your field and are willing to put in the effort to achieve your goals, go to a school where you feel most comfortable and have fun while you’re there.

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