Ness’s Notes (March 23)
The Sweet 16 kicks off tonight with four games, followed by four more games on Friday. While Duke is a regular at this party (ninth straight Sweet 16 appearance), he is the only one of the top 10 winningest shows in the country to be a part of this year’s regionals. St John’s, Temple and Utah were not invited this year, while Indiana (2nd), Kansas (1st), Kentucky (2nd), Indiana (2nd), North Carolina (2nd) and Penn (1st) have already lost.
My free game for Thursday is the Pho Suns over the Por Trailblazers in the NBA. The “D” Pistons came along and gave me a 22* winner last night in the NBA and tonight I’m offering another 22*, this time in college hoops. It’s a rare chance to collect 22 stars in a row, My Highest Rated Releases!
I’m not done with college hoops though, as I also have two Las Vegas Insider Plays, at LSU/Duke and West Va/Texas. I threw two Las Vegas Insider Plays last Friday and went a perfect 2-0, winning with Arizona (over Wisconsin) and NC State (over Cal). NBA fans, I’m looking to continue my 63% streak since February 3rd with a 15* NBA Blowout winner!
The last eight national champions have made it through the opening weekend of the tournament by winning each of their first two games by at least double figures. Only five of this year’s Sweet 16 teams have been able to do that. The list includes Boston College, Duke, Florida, Memphis, and West Virginia. Notably absent from this group are No. 1 seeds U Conn and Villanova. Does that mean something?
The NCAA defines a “big upset” as one in which the winner is seeded at least five spots below the loser. There have been 10 major upsets so far in this year’s tournament, but there are no potential major upsets in any of the eight Sweet 16 matchups.
The top possible upsets over the weekend would be Duke (1) vs. West Va (6) and Bradley (13) vs. UCLA (2) or Gonzaga (3). U Conn (1) against Wichita State (7) or George Mason (11) is another, as is Washington (5) against George Mason. One last big upset possibility in an Elite 8 matchup would be Villanova (1) vs. Georgetown (7).
There have been eight major middle schools that have advanced to the Sweet 16 (since 1985) as all-around teams. There are three schools that fit that description this year in Bradley, George Mason and Wichita State. The previous eight schools have all gone 0-8 in their Sweet 16 appearances, losing by an average margin of 14.1 points per game. That losing streak has to end this year, though, as George Mason and Wichita State meet on Friday.
Tonight’s games are LSU vs Duke at 7:10 ET (Duke is the top six favorite with a total of 147 1/2), Bradley vs Memphis at 7:25 ET (Memphis is the top six favorite with a total of 142), West Va vs. Texas around 9:40 ET (Texas is a five-favorite with a total of 131 1/2) and Gonzaga vs. UCLA around 9:55 ET (UCLA is a three-favorite with a total of 142). total of 138).
Three of the NIT Final Four are set up when Old Dominion, Michigan and Louisville won last night, which means all three will head to New York next week. ODU ended the nation’s second longest active home winning streak, winning at Hofstra 61-51. The Pride had won 21 straight home games, but after beating the Monarchs twice during the regular season, they couldn’t do it three out of three last night. Ironically, Old Dominion were also the last team to beat Hofstra on their home court, on January 19, 2005!
ODU will face Michigan next Tuesday in one of two semifinal games at MSG, as the Wolverines advanced with a 71-65 win over Miami-Florida last night. Michigan is now 16-0 in home NIT games and has won eight straight postseason games (it was 5-0 in winning the 2004 NIT and has three wins this year). The meeting between Michigan and Old Dominion next Tuesday will be the first meeting between the two schools.
Louisville, as Michigan, the No. 1 seed in this year’s NIT, had little trouble dispatching Missouri State (74-56) as the Bears shot a pathetic 27 percent in Wednesday’s loss to the night. Louisville awaits the winner of tonight’s game for their semifinal opponent on Tuesday, as the Cardinals take on the winner of South Carolina in Cincinnati (6:00 ET). The Bearcats are favored by 3 1/2 points (132) over the Gamecocks, who are the defending champions of this event.
The Pistons scored a season-low 35 points in the first half of last night’s game against the Heat, but shut Miami down in the second half, holding the Heat to just 30 points (while scoring 47). The 82-73 win gives Detroit its 16th straight home win and brings its home mark this year to 30-2 (54-13 overall). For Miami, Wade was held to a season-low 13 points, and the game’s 73 points also marked the team’s season-low.
Detroit began its regular “cast of characters” for the 67th straight game, becoming the only team since 1980 to open the season with the same five starters in as many games. The 2002-03 Warriors opened that season with the same starting five for 66 straight games!
The Nuggets beat the Spurs 104-92 in Denver (tied the Spurs with the Mavs at 53-15) and the Lakers beat the Kings 87-80 in Los Angeles, putting them just ahead of the Kings (36-34 to 34-34) as they battle for playoff spots 7 and 8 in the West.
In the huge shadow cast by tonight’s NCAA action, the NBA will play six games. Of interest are Minnesota in New Jersey (7:35 ET), Houston in New Orleans (8:05 in Okla City), the Clippers in Memphis (8:05 ET) and Golden State in Dallas (8:35 ET).
Kevin Garnett has posted 24 straight double-doubles, but Minnesota is riding an eight-game losing streak on the road tonight at the Meadowlands. The T-wolves have lost 21 of their last 24 games away from the Target Center and will face a New Jersey team that has won six straight overall (5-0-1 ATS) and 18 of its last 21 at the Meadowlands. NJ is favored by seven points ((183 1/2).
The Rockets are 2-19 without T-Mac and play the Hornets, fresh off ending an eight-game losing streak (both SU and ATS) on Tuesday against the Clippers. The Hornets are 32-33, just a half-game behind the Kings for the final playoff spot in the West. New Orleans is favored by six points (178 1/2).
The Clippers (39-27) lead the Grizzlies (38-29) by 1 1/2 games in the West playoff picture, but one has to wonder if Memphis really wants to snag LA for fifth place. The team that wins the fifth seed will have to play either Dallas or San Antonio in the first round, while the sixth seed will get the Nuggets! Who would you prefer?
Memphis is favored by four points tonight with a total of 187. Speaking of the Mavericks, they can move a half game ahead of the Spurs with a home win over the Warriors tonight. Dallas is a 10-point favorite (193).
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