The fall of the house from the hurricane

Too bad Larry Coker.

At this point, there’s really nothing he can do. Miami (FL) is out of the top 25 for the first time in a million years (well, since 1999). The ‘Canes lost a lackluster home game against a not-so-great Florida State team, then went on the road two weeks ago and got their ass wiped by a very good Louisville team, and yet their starting QB and star RB were missing. , 51-10. Miami could go undefeated for the rest of the season (ps: they won’t), and Coker’s job would still be in jeopardy.

(Side note: I love how all the college football analysts sitting in the studio start their discussion of an embattled college coach by talking about how all the “internet chat rooms” are calling for the removal of so-and-so. From someone who is pretty ‘Net savvy, let me just say that if any university admin anywhere has ever heard anything someone ever said in an “internet chat room” (I assume these knuckleheads mean “message board Internet”, but let’s leave that alone), he or she should immediately be forced to resign his or her position, or accept Bob Knight as his or her head basketball coach, whichever he or she chooses).

Yes, the ACC is down. The ‘Canes and ‘Noles have dramatically low offensive power. Virginia Tech has not hired anyone who could exploit their various defections and/or suspensions. Boston College and Wake Forest are mirages. Georgia Tech is as consistent as Dave Chappelle. Heck, you could make the argument that there are as many as three Big East teams that would go undefeated in ACC play. And yet Miami will continue to be overrated in the betting window.

So far in 2006, the Hurricanes have struggled offensively like never before in their recent history. They rank 52nd in passing attack and 61st in running attack. Their offensive line lost all but one starter from last season. Their starting running back, Charlie Jones, is averaging 41.3 yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry, and has been benched this week in favor of freshman Javarris James (Edgerrin’s first cousin). Overall, in its two games against Division I opponents (discounting a 51-10 win over Florida A&M), the offense had 17 points and a combined 476 total yards. The ‘Canes’ run defense remains as solid as ever: the team ranks eighth in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game, at just 59.3 (equivalent to 2.3 yards per carry); However, one of the reasons the rushing numbers are so good is that the pass defense is so bad: without Brian Brohm for most of Louisville’s game, the Cardinals nevertheless amassed 294 passing yards before to cancel the dogs at the end.

Into this gap (and the Orange Bowl) comes the University of Houston, with its sixth-ranked passing offense (312 yards per game). Senior quarterback David Kolb is third in the nation in passing and has a ridiculous 171.7 QB rating. The Cougars are also averaging 175 yards per game on the ground, which equates to five yards per carry. Of course, this is a big step up in the competition for Houston, which is 4-0 in Miami on Saturday night: They’ve beaten Rice, Tulane, Grambling and Oklahoma State. Still, OSU’s win was the first for Houston against a Big 12 school since 1988, and while the Cowboys ran relatively wildly on the Cougars (165 rushing yards), Kolb kept control of the ball long enough to record an upset win. by 34-25 (as a loser of 2.5 points).

Add to these statistics the fact that Miami is consistently one of the most overrated teams in the nation by bettors. They are 8-20 against the spread in their last 28 home games. They are also 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games in which they have been favored by 10.5 or more points, 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall, 0-4 ATS in their last four entering as a favorite. , 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games, 0-3 ATS in their last three night games and 0-4 ATS in their last four against Conference USA teams. The name draws money, not soccer. Houston, by contrast, is 11-5-1 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games (although it is 0-3 ATS in its last three roadies). I think Houston is going to take Miami behind the woodshed, Louisville style? No. The athletes that play in the U. are simply of a better caliber, and Miami should eventually wear Houston down. But I think this is going to be a very high-scoring game, and I think Houston will be in it a lot longer than many seem to believe. While I’m not sure if Houston can stop Miami QB Kyle Wright or WR Darnell Jenkins, the Cougars will attack through the air as well, and that’s exactly where Miami is vulnerable. Miami will win the game, but I suspect it will be close, so I’ll take Houston (+17) in Miami. Poor Larry.

Last week: An easy cover, as Wake Forest, a three-point underdog, dominated in Mississippi and won the game outright, 27-3. After a rather indifferent cover two weeks ago, this was a nice and easy Saturday. For the year, then, I’m at 3-1 against the spread.